The Vicious Circle of Planetary Collapse and Human Displacement

Wednesday, 12 November 2025 06:15

Summary

A series of recent United Nations reports paints a stark picture of a world where environmental and social crises are no longer isolated threats but a single, interconnected system of risk. Climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution are accelerating, creating a nexus with conflict and human displacement that is pushing already fragile communities to the brink . By mid-2025, 117 million people were displaced by violence and persecution, with three out of every four of them residing in countries highly exposed to climate-related hazards . Over the past decade, weather-related disasters alone have caused approximately 250 million internal displacements, equating to roughly 70,000 people forced to move every day . Simultaneously, land degradation now affects an estimated 40 per cent of the global population, or 3.2 billion people, while water scarcity threatens to impact over four billion people as global challenges escalate . The UN University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security warns that surface-level solutions are failing, calling for a "Theory of Deep Change" to address the fundamental societal structures and mindsets that perpetuate these escalating, interwoven global challenges .

The New Geography of Displacement

The global humanitarian landscape is being fundamentally reshaped by a vicious cycle where climate extremes and armed conflict amplify one another, creating a new geography of human displacement . By the middle of 2025, the number of people displaced by war, violence, and persecution had reached 117 million . A critical finding from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is that three out of every four of these refugees and displaced persons are currently living in nations facing high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards . This convergence means that communities already reeling from violence are simultaneously being hit by severe droughts, deadly floods, and record-breaking heatwaves, yet they possess the fewest resources to recover . Over the last decade, weather-related disasters have been responsible for approximately 250 million internal displacements worldwide . This figure represents an average of around 70,000 people forced to move every single day, or two displacements occurring every three seconds . The impacts are visible across the globe, from the devastating floods sweeping through South Sudan and Brazil to the record-breaking heat in Kenya and Pakistan, and the severe water shortages plaguing Chad and Ethiopia . Climate change does not directly cause war, but it acts as a powerful threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in complex, context-specific ways . It worsens poverty, intensifies tensions over increasingly scarce resources such as food, water, and land, and heightens economic and political insecurity . The loss of livelihoods due to environmental collapse can, in turn, raise the risk of recruitment into armed groups, particularly in regions like the Sahel . The risks facing displaced populations are projected to intensify dramatically . The number of countries expected to face extreme climate-related hazards is forecast to rise from just three to 65 by 2040 . These 65 nations collectively host over 45 per cent of all people currently displaced by conflict . Furthermore, the conditions in refugee settlements are set to become increasingly perilous . By 2050, the hottest refugee camps in countries including Gambia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal, and Mali are projected to face nearly 200 days or more of hazardous heat stress annually . This deadly combination of extreme heat and high humidity could render many of these locations uninhabitable . Despite the clear and present danger, only a quarter of global funding earmarked for climate adaptation reaches conflict-affected countries, which are often the most generous hosts to large refugee populations .

The Silent Erosion of the Earth

Beneath the immediate crisis of displacement lies the silent, pervasive scourge of land degradation, a crisis that undermines the very foundation of human security . Land degradation, defined as the reduction or loss of the biological or economic productivity of land, now adversely affects approximately 3.2 billion people, which is equivalent to 40 per cent of the global population . Between 2015 and 2019 alone, at least 100 million hectares of healthy and productive land were degraded every year, a loss equivalent to twice the size of Greenland . This environmental decline directly exposes 1.3 billion people to its impacts, threatening food and water security globally . The economic toll of this degradation is staggering, estimated to cost the global economy between $18 and $20 trillion USD annually . The primary driver of this planetary erosion is the global food system . Agriculture is responsible for 80 per cent of deforestation, 70 per cent of freshwater use, and is the single greatest cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss . Human activities such as urban expansion, deforestation, and the conversion of grasslands, coupled with the effects of climate change, are the direct drivers of degradation worldwide . In Africa, the situation is particularly acute, with 75 per cent of the continent’s land deteriorating . More than half of all refugee settlements across Africa are situated in high-stress areas, where land degradation is shrinking access to food, water, and income, thereby fuelling conflict and repeated displacement . The loss of soil organic carbon, a key measure of soil health, is projected to reach 212 gigatonnes by 2050 due to unsustainable land management and land conversion . The international community has set a target under Sustainable Development Goal 15.3 to achieve land degradation neutrality by 2030 . Achieving this goal would require restoring 1.5 billion hectares of land if current trends continue, or halting all new degradation and accelerating existing commitments to restore one billion hectares .

The Geopolitics of Thirst

The crisis of land is inextricably linked to the crisis of water, which is rapidly becoming a central fault line in global geopolitics . The 2025 World Water Development Report, presented by UNESCO and UN-Water, highlights that climate factors, glacier melt, pollution, and land degradation are escalating global water challenges . Experts forecast that over four billion people could face water scarcity as these challenges intensify . Even before these escalations, roughly half of the world’s population experienced severe water scarcity for at least part of the year as of 2022 . The UN goal of ensuring access to safely managed drinking water for all by 2030 is far from being attained . Currently, 2.2 billion people still live without access to safely managed drinking water, and 3.5 billion lack access to safely managed sanitation . The consequences of this scarcity are not merely humanitarian; they are a direct threat to peace . As water stress increases, so do the risks of local and regional conflict . The lack of water security drives migration, and the influx of displaced people further strains resources in the locations where they settle . The humanitarian impact is immediate and severe, particularly in conflict zones . In flood-affected parts of Chad, for instance, newly arrived refugees from war-torn Sudan are receiving less than 10 litres of water per day, a volume far below emergency standards . The burden of water scarcity falls disproportionately on women and girls . In many rural areas, they are the primary water collectors, a task that can consume several hours a day . This increased burden undermines women’s education, economic participation, and safety, contributing to higher secondary school dropout rates among girls . The UN has made clear that if global peace is to be preserved, swift action is required not only to safeguard water resources but also to enhance regional and global cooperation in this critical area .

The War on Nature

The environmental crisis is not solely a consequence of climate change and poor land management; it is also a direct casualty of armed conflict . The UN warns that conflicts, from Gaza to Ukraine and beyond, are devastating natural resources, including water systems, farmland, and forests . This destruction of ecosystems has long-term implications for food security, water security, the economy, and public health, and it fuels displacement and ongoing instability . The Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Inger Andersen, noted that environmental damage caused by conflicts continues to push people into hunger, disease, and displacement, thereby increasing insecurity . The world is currently experiencing more armed conflicts than at any time since the end of the Second World War, with two billion people—a quarter of the global population—living in conflict-affected areas . The long-term environmental consequences of war are profound . For example, in Sierra Leone, the decade-long conflict that ended in 2002 led to the silence of primary forests and savannahs, resulting in the loss of biodiversity, the forced migration of wildlife, and the abandonment of agricultural fields . The environmental damage from conflict is a critical, yet often overlooked, component of the interconnected global crisis . Climate change further exacerbates these tensions, contributing to conflict over resources like water and land . The UNEP has called for increased investments in climate adaptation, noting that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided means lower losses for people and ecosystems, and greater opportunities for peace and prosperity .

Beyond Superficial Fixes

The sheer scale and interconnectedness of these crises—climate, displacement, land, water, and conflict—demand a fundamental re-evaluation of the global response . The 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report, published by the United Nations University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), argues that efforts to address global risks often fail because they do not challenge the fundamental beliefs and systems that create and maintain these problems . The report, titled “Turning Over a New Leaf,” introduces the “Theory of Deep Change” (ToDC), a framework that seeks to trace global challenges to their root causes, revealing the underlying structures and societal assumptions that allow them to persist . The authors use the metaphor of a tree, suggesting that the visible crises are merely the rotten fruit, while the true problems lie much deeper in the roots . The report highlights the paradox that despite decades of warnings from scientists about the damage being done to the planet, meaningful actions are not being taken . For instance, while the climate crisis worsens, fossil fuel consumption continues to hit record highs . The UNU-EHS identifies five essential shifts required for a sustainable world . These include Rethinking waste to shift towards a circular economy that prioritises durability, repair, and reuse . The second shift is Realigning with nature, moving away from controlling natural processes to coexisting with them . The third is Reconsidering responsibility, transitioning from an individualistic focus to collective global accountability, which critiques practices like carbon offsetting that shift negative effects to other countries . The fourth is Reimagining the future, ensuring that the responsibility for dealing with impacts, such as nuclear waste, is not simply shifted to future generations . Finally, the fifth shift is Redefining value, moving beyond wealth or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the sole metric for global prosperity, citing Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness Index as an alternative that prioritises well-being and ecology . The report concludes that many of today’s solutions are superficial fixes that often impede real change, and that lasting transformation requires questioning the societal structures and mindsets that perpetuate these challenges .

Conclusion

The evidence from the United Nations’ latest reports is unequivocal: the world is not facing a series of separate crises, but a single, self-reinforcing system of environmental and human collapse . The convergence of climate change, land degradation, water scarcity, and conflict is creating a humanitarian emergency that is already displacing millions and threatening the habitability of entire regions . The data shows that the most vulnerable populations—those displaced by conflict—are simultaneously the most exposed to climate hazards, trapped in a cycle of repeated loss and devastation . The economic and social costs of this interconnected failure are measured not only in trillions of dollars but in the fundamental rights and security of billions of people . The call from UN experts for a ‘Theory of Deep Change’ is a recognition that incremental policy adjustments are insufficient to address problems rooted in fundamental societal assumptions about waste, value, and humanity’s relationship with nature . Moving forward requires a radical, integrated policy shift that treats climate adaptation, land restoration, water governance, and peacebuilding as inseparable components of a single global security mandate . The failure to deliver on this integrated vision will not merely result in missed targets, but in the continued, accelerating unravelling of the planet’s life support systems and the further destabilisation of the human order .

References

UN report recommends 'deep change' theory to address global crises
Supports the core premise of interconnected crises (climate, biodiversity, pollution) and the UNU-EHS's 'Theory of Deep Change' and the five essential shifts (Rethink waste, Realign with nature, Reconsider responsibility, Reimagine the future, Redefine value).
UN report: Tackling global crises requires a radical shift in mindsets
Provides details on the UNU-EHS 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report, the 'Theory of Deep Change' framework, the metaphor of the tree, and the critique of surface-level solutions and continued fossil fuel consumption.
Millions displaced worldwide as climate crises worsen: UN
Cites UNHCR figures on weather-related displacements (250 million over a decade, 67,000 per day), the vicious circle of conflict and climate, and the low percentage of climate adaptation funds reaching conflict-affected countries (only a quarter).
UNHCR report reveals extreme weather driving repeated displacement among conflict-affected communities
Provides key data: 117 million displaced by mid-2025, three in four living in high-climate-hazard countries, 250 million internal displacements, examples (South Sudan, Brazil, Kenya, Pakistan, Chad, Ethiopia), 75% of African land deteriorating, and the dire water situation in Chad refugee camps (less than 10 litres/day).
UN commission warns climate change exacerbates refugee crisis
Confirms the 117 million displaced figure, explains how climate change acts as a conflict multiplier (worsening poverty, tensions over resources, recruitment risk), and provides the projection of 65 countries facing extreme climate hazards by 2040.
Climate change causes 67K daily displacements worldwide, UN says
Reinforces the 250 million displacement figure (67,000 per day), the three-quarters figure for climate-vulnerable conflict countries, and the low climate adaptation funding for these nations.
Facts about the nature crisis | UNEP - UN Environment Programme
Provides the statistic that around 3.2 billion people, or 40 per cent of the global population, are adversely affected by land degradation.
Refugee camps set to be uninhabitable by 2050 as extreme weather worsens | UN News
Details the 2050 projection for the hottest refugee camps (200 days of heat stress), the 75% land deterioration in Africa, the link between degradation and recruitment into armed groups in the Sahel, and the water scarcity in Chad.
Data Application of the Month: Land Degradation | UN-SPIDER Knowledge Portal
Provides the definition of land degradation, the estimated annual global economic cost ($18-20 trillion USD), the projection of soil organic carbon loss by 2050, and the mention of SDG 15.3.
Goal 15 - — SDG Indicators - the United Nations
Cites the rate of land degradation (100 million hectares/year between 2015-2019), the number of people exposed (1.3 billion), the drivers (human activities, climate change), and the restoration targets (1.5 billion hectares) for Land Degradation Neutrality by 2030.
UN report: Land degradation affects half world's population and economy
Identifies global food systems as the primary cause of land degradation, responsible for 80% of deforestation and 70% of freshwater use.
UNCCD Data Dashboard
Confirms the figure of 1.3 billion people exposed to land degradation.
UN Releases 2025 World Water Development Report Highlighting Global Water Challenges
Cites the 2025 World Water Development Report, identifying climate factors, glacier melt, pollution, and land degradation as threats, and the forecast that over four billion people could face water scarcity.
Water crises threaten world peace (report)
Provides data on water access (2.2 billion without safe drinking water, 3.5 billion without safe sanitation), the 2022 figure of half the world's population facing severe scarcity, the link between water stress and conflict, and the disproportionate impact on girls and women.
Global water crisis fuelling more conflicts, UN report warns
Reinforces the figures for lack of clean water and sanitation, the link between water scarcity and conflict/instability, and the impact on girls and women's education.
Battlefields to wastelands: UN warns conflicts are destroying ecosystems worldwide
Focuses on the environmental impact of armed conflict (Gaza, Ukraine, Sierra Leone), the destruction of natural resources (water systems, farmland, forests), the number of people in conflict-affected areas (two billion), and the role of climate change in exacerbating tensions.
New Interconnected Disaster Risks 2025 Report Launched and Featured Across International Media
Confirms the launch of the 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report, the 'Theory of Deep Change,' the five essential shifts, and the critique that current solutions are superficial fixes.